Monday, July 19, 2010

Summer of Discontent

It's tough to remember a time in recent years when the political tides have turned so quickly.  If the midterm elections were held tomorrow, the GOP would likely take control of the House and would even have an outside shot at taking the Senate, too.    

The turning of fortunes for Obama can largely be linked to just how swiftly and soundly independents have turned against him.  Poll after poll reveal that those who identify with neither party believe the government is spending way too much money, that the economy would be better off today had the stimulus never passed, that the bailouts were a bad idea, and that the healthcare legislation ought to be repealed.  These are people who largely voted for Obama (why?) but whose views are now more in line with those that Republicans have been preaching since his first day in office.

I am not one of those that hate Obama or think he is the anti-Christ.  I am one of those who believe his views on government, on human nature, on individual freedom, and (his lack of views) on the role that a free economy plays in preserving those freedoms are deeply misguided, flawed, and simply dangerous.  You cannot continue to run World War II-sized deficits during peacetime without eventually reaching that tipping point where investors no longer want to buy US treasuries, or where there simply are no longer any investors left to buy US treasuries:  at some point interest rates have to rise to compete with the better rates of return alternative investments are promising, which is what happened under Carter.  

And every dollar spent on a new stimulus project, on new unemployment benefit checks, on new healthcare entitlement spending, must first come from a bondholders' wallet - it is a dollar that he no longer has to spend or invest.  You simply cannot stimulate one sector of the economy without first unstimulating another sector.  I have said that a million times on this blog and I will say it a million more times.         

Regardless of just how big Republican victories are in the Fall, the important question is how Obama will react.  If he is a survivor, he will follow in Clinton's footsteps and triangulate (i.e., cut deals, cut spending, reform entitlements, abandon liberals) to ensure re-election in 2012.  On the other hand, if he is truly committed to what he believes in, he will continue to watch his ratings flounder and Mitt Romney will be the next president.   

It likewise depends on just how idiotic and hypocritical the Republicans will succeed in making themselves look should they return to power.  Certainly wouldn't put it past them.

9 comments:

Barstool69 said...

and now when repubs are criticizing dems for their spending, dems are pointing out their hypocrisy under Bush. fierce cycle.

Shane said...

Republican victories are only a good thing on paper. You can't really call Bush small government.

Patrick said...

Well, to be fair I think Republican victories are good in practice as well, particularly this time around because it would provide for divided government. A GOP Congress would limit Obama's power and force him to reduce spending and curtail his agenda. Same thing happened with Clinton and the economy blossomed.

Republicans usually stick to their principles when the other party is running Pennsylvania Avenue. The last 18 months have largely proven that.

Snuffy said...

GO JOE!

Barstool69 said...

except for those unemployment benefits getting extended today...

HANK said...

Would a lot of our problems be solved with limited terms, no pay, and fewer sessions for the politicians? I've heard these arguments from the Tea Baggers. I don't know much about the possible results.

BTW- Did anyone catch Joe Welch's commercial last night? Apparently, he's upset about "illegals."

Michael said...

The NAACP told me the Tea Baggers are racist.
I don't trust the Republicans either, but at least a lot of them are trying to say the right things lately.

Patrick said...

Bryan, they've been filibustering that for weeks. What else did you want them to do to try and stop it?

I've been upset with the GOP over a lot of things in the past but we can't always let the perfect become the enemy of the good. I did not vote for McCain in '08 but I will be voting Republican this fall. Anything to stop the Obama freight train.

Weazle said...

Nice "Richard III" reference.