Monday, October 27, 2008

Patrick Predicts the Election

I realize we talk way too much about politics on here but we've got 7 days left til this thing plays out. Here are my projections for the night of November 4th:

Electoral Prediction: Obama/Biden - 364; McCain/Palin - 174
Popular Vote: Obama/Biden - 52%; McCain/Palin - 45%

It goes without saying that a lot could still happen in a week. And I've been wrong about a lot of things this past year, especially Obama's ability to defeat Clinton in the primaries, which I was convinced was impossible.

I've actually been a little generous to McCain here, because it also looks like Indiana could go Obama's way. This is quite astonishing when you consider that Bush won Indiana by more than 20 points in 2004, and carried North Carolina (which I guess isn't part of the South anymore) by 15. Jesus what the hell happened. You know pigs are starting to fly when the most liberal member of the US Senate is able to carry Indiana of all places. It really doesn't get any worse than this. This is where the "independent," "moderate," "maverick," "I'll support the bailout and use taxpayer money to buy up irresponsible and stupid people's mortgages so I can piss even more people off from my party and get more praise from the New York Times that isn't going to endorse me anyway" approach gets you: nowhere. We'd be in much better shape right now had Romney won the nomination and had less "independents" (e.g., Democrats) been allowed cross over and screw up our primaries.

P.S. = Also, keep your eyes on Montana. It could end up going blue as well.


Barstool69 said...

Obama wins, the country sinks deeper into economic recessions/depression/whatever the hell it's called when spending increases and that sets the stage for a Mitt Romney/John Thune 2012 ticket that will utterly dominate.

Snuffy said...

Pat, I know nothing about politics. But I do know this:

(1) America is still segregated. I don't care what polls say. There are plenty of white democrats out there that won't show up on Tuesday because they can't vote for a black president.

(2) A president has to have a presidential-sounding name. Does Barack Obama sound like an American president to you?

Patrick said...

Bryan - Let's hope so.

Snuffy - You bring a commonsense perspective here, no doubt. But seriously, it's over. More over than when Van Tyson tried to tear down all of Ryan's campaign signs in the well right before the student senate election. Fat lady already done sung.

HANK said...

I think the race is closer than y'all think.

I don't want to do the raw data research, but historically the Democrat nominee almost always has better polling numbers as compared to actually results.

I do believe Obama will win, but I think the race is very close, and McCain still has a chance. The vast majority of those polled are more likely to vote Democrat.

What about the millions of suburban white people? Their vote is much stronger than the 12% black population.