A Return to Divided Government

Last night, in some respects, was 1994 in reverse. For the first time in twelve years we had nationalized midterms, a strong message sent by voters, and a change in party power.

But in many ways, this year bears no semblance to '94. The main differences:
- Republicans won by running to the right that year, courting their base. Democrats won last night by running to the center and trying to keep their base quiet.
- Republicans won that year by actively promoting a point-by-point plan to reform government. Last night the Democrats won by not having a plan, by remaining passive, keeping quiet (except John Kerry), and simply waiting for the G.O.P. to self-destruct.
- In 1994 the American people rejected liberalism. Last night wasn't a rejection of conservatism, but of corruption and frustration over a war.

The Good:
- Maybe, just maybe, Bush will finally start using that thing called the veto pen. This would help slow the growth of government.
- The vast majority of Democratic pick-ups last night ran as conservatives and moderates; hopefully they'll stay that way once they arrive in Washington
- Divided government usually has a better (or, more accurately, a less worse) record of protecting economic and civil liberties and promoting fiscal responsibility, than one-party rule does. Hopefully this will remain true with the new set up we'll have.
- Last night made a Hillary Clinton victory in 2 years substantially less likely. A second Clinton White House is by no means totally out of the picture, but Americans are unlikely to want a liberal female president and a liberal female house speaker in the same government. And Hillary won't be able to run as the "agent of change" in '08, because that change already happened 2 years prior.

The Bad:
- There's a very good chance Democrats will misinterpret their mandate; the reason they won last night is because many libertarians and conservatives stayed home instead of voting Republican. Many are upset about Iraq, and more and more have felt alienated by the G.O.P. since 2000. It's not because Americans approve of things like socialized medicine, higher tax rates, unfettered abortion, and Cuba's economic system.
- Unlike 1995-1996, when a media blitz led by Clinton and the major networks used the old "Mediscare" tactic to derail Gingrich's plan to force Clinton to sign a balanced budget, this time the media will be on the side of the new party in power.
- The Democratic Leadership's sheer lack of positions across the board is troubling. Will they raise taxes? Defund the war? They won by running on a platform of being against things. It's unclear exactly what they'll be for.

All in all, I think last night was good for the simple reason that, for the umpteenth time, it sent a simple message to the G.O.P. leadership: this is what you get when you abandon libertarians and ignore the people who put you in power in the first place. This is what happens when you put privilege and power over principle.